Super Bowl 58 Preview: Kansas City Chiefs vs. San Francisco 49ers
Will Patrick Mahomes hoist his 3rd Lombardi trophy or will Shannahan and Purdy bring home the 1st title to the Bay since 1995?
Patrick Mahomes enters Sunday’s Super Bowl to try and stay on pace with the greatest quarterback of all time— Tom Brady.
It is unfair for anyone to be compared to the greatest football player of all time, but Mahomes has a chance to enter the conversation.
By the time Brady started six seasons for the Patriots in the NFL, here is what he achieved:
3 Super Bowl Championships
3 SB Appearances
4 AFC Championship Appearances
2 Super Bowl MVP awards
He did all that by the time he was 28 years old.
Catching Brady and his record-setting, NFL record 7-Super Bowl victories is going to be very tough to reach…even for a player of Mahomes calibur.
But Mahomes is winning at a historic pace already in his short six-year career. Sunday night, he starts in his fourth Super Bowl game during the past five seasons.
That is just unbelievable to think about.
Last year, Mahomes led the Chiefs to a thrilling 38-35 victory over the Eagles at Super Bowl 57.
Not only is he trying to win his third Super Bowl during the past six years, but looking to win back-to-back Super Bowls.
That has only been done eight times in NFL History and twice since Mahomes was born.
Coinciately, Brady was the last QB to lead his team to back-to-back Super Bowls in 2003 and 2004.
Mahomes during his six seasons as Chiefs starter:
2x NFL MVP
2x Super Bowl Champion
2x Super Bowl MVP
2x All-Pro
6x Pro Bowler
That is incredible and unprecedented in the history of the NFL.
This season, Mahomes hasn’t had a 1,000-yard receiver or a 1,000-yard running back but like he always does he found a way to make it work.
Although superstar Travis Kelce had a disappointing start to the season this year, he has exploded in the Playoffs. Kelce has shown in recent weeks why he has been the best tight end in football for many years.
Kelce has caught 23 balls for a total of 262 yards and three touchdowns during the Chiefs’ two playoff games this season. Rookie Rashee Rice has improved throughout the season and has been a reliable piece for Mahomes down the stretch.
Even though the Cheifs have been underdogs at points this season they cannot be happy to be in the Super Bowl.
This is a legacy game for Mahomes, Andy Reid, and the Chiefs.
3 Super Bowls is a Dynasty.
There has only been ONE TEAM to win at least three Super Bowls in the past 20 years.
The New England Patriots.
3 Super Bowls would put Mahomes in 4th place in all-time Super Bowl wins for a starting QB in the NFL.
It also would make Mahomes the only QB to win at least 3 Super Bowls in the past 20 years.
As I mentioned, for years everyone would (unfairly) compare Mahomes to Brady when it didn’t make sense.
3 Super Bowls in 6 seasons starting puts Mahomes on Brady’s level at this point in his career.
Still, it would be very hard to get to Brady’s record 7 Super Bowls but this puts it in perspective of just how hard it is to even win more than three Super Bowls.
Mahomes has overcome a ton of adversity in big games. He was down by 10 points heading into the final quarter the last time the 49ers and Cheifs played in the Super Bowl in 2020.
Mahomes had to me, his worst game of his career three years ago when the Cheifs got blown out by the Bucs in Super Bowl 55 where he threw two interceptions.
But 364 days ago, when he beat the Eagles he was excellent from start to finish. Over 200 yards and three touchdowns and made every big play down the stretch.
Although the Chiefs are the feel-good story for this year’s NFL season from Kelce dating Taylor Swift to people starting to doubt Mahomes (including myself) but Shanahan and the 49ers just need this one more.
If San Fran loses this Super Bowl, Shanahan is on the verge of being labeled a loser in big games, and “not being able to win the big one” will be true.
His last two Super Bowls:
Blew a 10-point lead over the KC Chiefs in SB 54
Blew a 28-3 lead over NE Patriots in SB 50
Although these teams did face off with each other four years ago in the Super Bowl, this year’s matchup looks very different.
Mahomes is leading the Chiefs still (obviously) but the 49ers have a second-year starter and last pick in the 2022 NFL Draft leading the team now.
Not just that, SF now has the 2023-24 offensive Player of the Year and best running back in the league on their team in Christian McCaffrey.
He changes everything for the 49ers.
McCaffrey had 2023 total yards this season, which was the most in the NFL for skill position players by almost 200 yards.
McCaffrey also led position players in touchdowns with 21 this season.
He caught 67 passes for 564 yards and seven touchdowns this year which is unreal and is comparable to some WRs.
Shanahan and the 49ers use CMC in so many different formations and his ability to line up as an RB or WR is a major mismatch for defenses.
The 49ers totaled the second most yards per game and scored the third most points per game while the Chiefs defense allowed only 17.3 points per game while allowing 289 yards per game.
So the 49ers have the better offense with Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, CMC, Brandon Aiyuk, and Kittle but the Chiefs have an elite defense led by Chris Jones.
Alright, let’s get to my prediction, believe it or not, the x-factor in this game for me is Brock Purdy.
Everyone wants to label him a game manager and not a guy that can win a game for his team but that can not be farther from the truth.
Purdy led the NFL in QBR and Passer Rating while being third in touchdowns and fifth in passing yards.
I don’t know if his being the last pick in the draft two years ago is affecting the public’s perception of him but none of that matters now.
First pick or last pick, Purdy is an elite quarterback and can do a lot more than be a game manager.
If Shanahan’s game plan, calls for Purdy to hand it off to CMC 25 times, he can do that but he can also make plays and extend plays with his feet.
The 49ers can win this game with an average game from Purdy but I believe that it will take his best game as Mahomes is a big game player.
San Fran has a clear talent edge on paper and I believe that their elite veteran group on defense led by Fred Warner and Nick Bosa will be prepared and will make a difference.
This game will be great, and I think it will be close until the final minutes of the game but I have more trust in the 49ers overall group although the Chiefs have the obvious advantage at the QB position.
Prediction: 49ers 31, Chiefs 27